The Impact of Current Demographic Trends on the Dynamics and Control of Vaccine Preventable Childhood Infections

Alessia Melegaro e Piero Poletti

Alessia Melegaro e Piero Poletti (Centro Dondena) hanno presentato The Impact of Current Demographic Trends on the Dynamics and Control of Vaccine Preventable Childhood Infections con Marco Ajelli e Stefano Merler (Fondazione Bruno Kessler) e Piero Manfredi (Università di Pisa) in occasione della Alp-Pop 2013 (Alpine Population Conference) che si è tenuta a La Thuile dal 13 al 16 gennaio.

Abstract: European populations are currently undergoing a number of transformations ranging from the generalized spread of low fertility, the “postponement” of life events, and the increasing role of international immigration, even as a policy to counter population ageing. Even more massive transformations are occurring in the developing world as a consequence of the ongoing fertility transition and fast urbanization. We discuss the impact of demographic change on the dynamics and control of vaccine preventable childhood infections from a modelling perspective. We first clarify the circumstances under which demographic change actually might have an impact on the dynamics of childhood infections. We suggest that to predict the impact of demographic change on infection dynamics we need to understand the relation between population change and critical demographic structures. To figure out such a relation we use an individual-based IBM model where contacts occur in three “arenas” (school, household, and “other” population contacts).